【首席观点】加密货币:虚拟与现实的冲突

  • 过去一年,不少财富管理机构纷纷推出加密货币相关业务。一些机构高调宣布持有以比特币(Bitcoin)为主的加密货币,例如特斯拉和桥水基金。进入五月,一路高歌猛进的加密货币突然出现崩盘式行情,那些急欲在加密货币市场分一杯羹的金融机构,面临困难选择。

  

  • 这让我们再次回到几个关于加密货币的经典问题:它们究竟是不是真正的货币?加密货币的基本属性是什么?加密货币作为虚拟资产,是风险资产还是避险资产?以比特币为代表的加密货币将何去何从?尽管我们依然充满疑惑,但未来却在展现一幅日渐清晰的图景。

  

  • 第一,比特币和其它加密货币在现实中,取代主权法定货币的可能性为零。事实上,各国都在谋划推出央行数字货币,这一进程将会加快。比特币搭建的去中心化支付机制,即使在技术上也不见得比现有的移动支付更具效率。加密货币的支付功能可能被边缘化,朝暗网交易和地下经济演变,成为跨国支付的另类工具。若如此演化,各国政府当然不会坐视不管,必将着手打击加密货币可能涉及的非法交易。

  

  • 第二,加密货币的出路,在于成为一种合规的新型风险资产。这一趋势正在成为可能,加密货币有望继续获得机构投资者的青睐,并在市场投资组合中占一席之地。成为合规的风险资产,意味着监管的适当介入。所以,监管介入并不是加密货币面临的最大风险,而是它们长期生存下来的机会。

    

  • 第三,加密货币所依赖的区块链技术,具有广阔的发展前景。然而,认识这点的关键在于“祛魅”,去除区块链身上的神秘性、神圣性、魅惑力,放弃无政府、无中心的幻想。而且,在经济学逻辑上,金融中介的出现正是为了解决信任问题和降低交易成本,虽然区块链技术已经证明去中心化可以解决信任问题,但无法降低交易成本。
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